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Global Asset and Wealth Management Survey 2023
Asset Wealth Management
  • Issue
  • 20 minute read
  • Juli 24, 2023

Die PwC-Studie "Global Asset and Wealth Management Survey 2023" und die Prognosen für das Jahr 2027 zeigen, wie sich die Branche verändern wird. 

In den kommenden vier Jahren steht die Asset & Wealth Management Branche vor einer erneuten Konsolidierungsphase. Es wird prognostiziert, dass bis 2027 jeder sechste Vermögensverwalter (= 16%) weltweit vom Markt verschwinden oder mit einem größeren Anbieter verschmolzen wird. 73% der Vermögensverwalter erwägen aufgrund von schwierigen Rahmenbedingungen eine strategische Konsolidierung mit einem Mitbewerber um dadurch Zugang zu neuen Segmenten zu erhalten, Marktanteile zu erhöhen und Kosten und Risiken zu reduzieren. Diese Ergebnisse gehen aus der Global Asset and Wealth Management Survey 2023 von PwC hervor.  Diese basiert auf Prognosen und einer internationalen Umfrage unter 250 Vermögensverwaltern und 250 institutionellen Investoren.

Der trübe Ausblick ist vor allem durch die Entwicklungen des vergangenen Jahres begründet. Im Jahr 2022 verringerte sich das international verwaltete Vermögen (Assets Under Management, AUM) im Vergleich zum Höchststand im Jahr 2021 um knapp 10% auf 115,1 Billionen US-Dollar. Gründe dafür sind laut Umfrage Inflation, Marktvolatilität und steigende Zinsen. Bis 2027 ist jedoch eine Erholung mit einer jährlichen Wachstumsrate von 5% auf 147,3 Billionen US-Dollar prognostiziert. Dieses Wachstum wird vor allem durch den asiatisch-pazifischen Raum und Schwellenländer in Afrika und im Nahen Osten vorangetrieben werden.

„Hoher Kostendruck und geringere Margen in der Branche zwingen Unternehmen, eine Reorganisation in Erwägung zu ziehen, vor allem, um Skaleneffekte zu erzielen. Es herrscht eine sehr große Dynamik am Markt. Das wiederum erzeugt zusätzlichen Druck auf die Verwaltungsgebühren“

Thomas Steinbauer, Partner und Asset & Wealth Management Leader

Vermögensverwalter setzen auf KI und Robo-Berater

Um sich zu transformieren und die Effizienz zu erhöhen setzen Unternehmen vermehrt auf disruptive Technologien. Mehr als 90% der befragten Vermögensverwalter nutzen bereits Big Data, künstliche Intelligenz und Blockchain zur Optimierung der Anlagenperformance. Laut Prognose werden von Robo-Beratern verwaltete Vermögenswerte bis 2027 5,9 Billionen US-Dollar erreichen und ihren Wert von 2,5 Billionen US-Dollar aus dem Jahr 2022 mehr als verdoppeln.

 

Private Märkte treiben Wachstum und Renditen der Vermögensverwaltung an

Die weltweiten Einnahmen der Asset-Wealth-Management Branche werden laut Prognose bis 2027 622,1 Milliarden US-Dollar erreichen. Wachstumstreiber sind vor allem private Märkte, welche bis 2027 etwa 40,7% der weltweiten Asset-Wealth-Management-Umsätze (im Vergleich zu 37,6% im Jahr 2020) ausmachen werden. Im Jahr 2022 kam 10,6% des international verwalteten Gesamtvermögens (AUM) aus privaten Märkten. Passive Anlagen werden bis 2027 von 26,4% der weltweiten AWM-Umsätze im Jahr 2022 auf 6,4% bis 2027 sinken.

 

    The way forward

  • Rethink your systems infrastructure

    To keep pace with today’s rapidly evolving systems, consider outsourcing non-client-facing, mid-office, and back-office requirements to a managed service provider with the scale and resources to ensure that both tech platforms and the skills of the talent needed to run them are fully up to date. For example, do you need an entire legal or finance department in-house, or could you outsource the basics of such functions to lower-cost, more efficient providers and focus instead on the company-specific elements?

  • Lead with the new

    Get ahead of the curve by setting up innovation labs and sandbox trials that will allow you to develop, test and move to market quickly on tokenisation and other game-changing frontier tech.

  • Gear up for mass customisation ahead

    Broaden your retail presence through AI and robo-advice as a way to offer the kinds of personalised solutions that would once have been reserved for HNW clients. But remember that the need to sustain a hybrid human and digital delivery model will remain.

  • Manage risks

    You can’t move forward on AI without managing risks among investors, employees and regulators. This underlines the need for maintaining robust governance and data protection, while being responsible and responsive to concerns about data security, stewardship and unintended consequences.

HNW individuals want more from wealth managers and will switch firms if they don’t get it. Research we carried out among HNW individuals in the US found that many are reconsidering their wealth management relationships as they seek access to an increased variety among products and services—including private markets. But many AWM organisations have found it difficult to extend access to private markets in practice, and the operational challenges are compounded by widespread pushback from financial advisers.

A significant part of this HNW opportunity stems from the generational shift in funds as millennials begin to inherit the wealth accumulated by their baby boomer parents. More than US$68 trillion could be passed on from baby boomers to millennials by 2030. This will heighten the calls for tech-enabled services. Millennial expectations are also likely to spur further demand for ESG, crypto/digital and private markets investments.

ETF goes direct

ETF managers surveyed in PwC’s ETF 2027: A world of new possibilities said they expect the biggest surge in demand over the next two to three years to come from individual investors. This is reinforced by our findings, which show that the growth potential includes active as well as passive ETFs. Nearly a quarter of institutional investors said they are considering investing in active ETFs in the next 12 to 24 months.

Along with new launches, the growth in active ETF AuM includes the conversion of existing mutual funds. Some asset managers have already begun this work, while almost 60% who are considering investing in active ETFs say they are considering converting up to 5% of their mutual fund offering (see charts below). The big challenge for traditional managers is how to sustain margins in the face of lower fees than they are generally accustomed to. This calls for a clear focus on scale, operating costs and digital distribution.

 

Purpose, Vielfalt und ESG sind entscheidend

Diversity, Equity und Inclusion (DEI) spielen auch in der Vermögensverwaltungsbranche eine wichtige Rolle. Laut Umfrage gaben mehr als die Hälfte der Befragten (57%) an, dass Mitarbeitende Information über den Einfluss des Unternehmens auf die Wirtschaft und 50% Informationen zu ESG-Themen fordern. Derzeit gaben allerdings nur 37% an, dass Arbeitgeber Maßnahmen zur Verbesserung von DEI in der Branche ergreifen.

 

"Es formiert sich eine neue Art von Investmentfirmen: Diese sind durch den Einsatz von künstlicher Intelligenz erstmalig in der Lage, individualisiert und optimiert für ihre Kunden in die gesamte Palette von Anlagearten zu investieren. Jeder Asset Manager sollte sich daher ehestmöglich mit der Anwendung dieser Technologien beschäftigen, um langfristig die eigene Zukunft selbst gestalten zu können“

Thomas Steinbauer, Partner und Asset & Wealth Management Leader

    The way forward

  • Embrace a more public face

    AWM leaders will have to accept a much more prominent public profile as they seek to sustain their social as well as regulatory licence to operate. There will also be growing pressure to put societal outcomes in areas such as accelerating the green transition at the forefront of strategic decision-making and how performance is managed and judged.

  • Define and deliver the right investor outcomes

    The already bright regulatory spotlight on investor outcomes is set to intensify in the wake of recent fund value fluctuations. But rather than seeing the incoming regulations as simply a compliance exercise, consider that they could provide a catalyst for improving and differentiating outcomes. The opportunities include using the latest advances in customer profiling and fund customisation to better understand and meet the investor’s financial goals and expectations in areas such as ESG.

  • Lead, don’t follow

    Both regulatory and public expectations will keep rising—and will be difficult to predict. This highlights the need to respond quickly to those expectations, such as the focus on support for natural ecosystems. For example, with biodiversity being built into regulatory taxonomies and new reporting requirements coming down the line, incorporating it into your investment and product development strategies now would enable you to get ahead and differentiate your funds.

But there is also ever more regulatory scrutiny over the systemic risks of concentrating so much power and wealth within a small set of large and growing AWM organisations. In the context of ageing populations and dwindling public pensions—what many see as an impending pensions crisis—this includes potential new rules for the industry for fees, reporting and product innovation to get out in front of the crisis.

There are also questions over accountability, especially as the value of private markets comes to exceed that of public markets and AWM organisations increase their footprint in areas such as infrastructure, social housing and business lending.

Purpose, Vielfalt und ESG sind entscheidend

Purpose, Vielfalt und ESG sind entscheidend

Purpose, Vielfalt und ESG sind entscheidend

Diversity, Equity und Inclusion (DIE) spielen auch in der Vermögensverwaltungsbranche eine wichtige Rolle. Laut Umfrage gaben mehr als die Hälfte der Befragten (57%) an, dass Mitarbeitende Information über den Einfluss des Unternehmens auf die Wirtschaft und 50% Informationen zu ESG-Themen fordern. Derzeit gaben allerdings nur 37% an, dass Arbeitgeber Maßnahmen zur Verbesserung von DEI in der Branche ergreifen.

Growth returns

As the global economy heads back into growth, and inflationary and interest rate pressures ease, global asset management revenues will bounce back to reach US$622.1 billion by 2027, topping the record highs of US$599.1 billion generated in 2021. We anticipate that this increase will be led by a continued surge in private markets revenues, which will account for around half of global asset management revenues by 2027, up sharply from 37.6% in 2020 (see chart below).

 

The search for growth and yield is taking AWM organisations into new segments, geographies and asset classes, with all the expected results: additional complexity, operational demands and risk of being spread too thin across subscale offerings.

Frontier and emerging markets 

Asia-Pacific, along with frontier and emerging markets in Africa and the Middle East, will set the pace of growth in AuM. According to our base-case scenario, growth rates in Asia-Pacific will be roughly 50% higher than in North America by 2027. Previously slow industry expansion in the Middle East—due to complex regulatory environments—is expected to pick up, as AWM organisations seeking new markets for revenue growth have renewed impetus to make inroads into these highly valuable, if challenging, regions (see chart below). 

 

4. Delivering at scale amid cost and competitive pressures

A combination of competition and investor pressure continues to drive down fees. Passive funds have seen the sharpest drops in total expense ratios (TERs)—the total cost of running or managing a fund—but active funds will see faster falls in the years ahead. Our survey shows that asset managers expect the drops to continue over the next 12 to 24 months—and they could go on even longer. By 2027, we expect that the TER of active investment funds will decrease by 12% from 2022, to 59 basis points (bps), whereas the historically lower TER of passive investment funds will drop by 9% from 2022, to 13 bps (see chart below).

 

Greater transparency and easier comparison are leading to some adjustment to fees, but investors are no longer the main driving force for fee reduction. Indeed, more than 70% of institutional investors are at least somewhat satisfied with the fees being charged for equities. Of those investors who are dissatisfied, the majority would prefer to negotiate a reduction in fees of up to 5% with existing managers rather than switch.

The biggest downward push on fees is now coming from within the AWM industry, as large managers are able to exert a combination of scale and investment in the latest technologies to undercut competitors. Further consolidation and increased concentration within the industry could reinforce these advantages. By 2027, we expect the top ten traditional asset managers to control around half of mutual fund AuM, up from 42.5% in 2020 (see chart below).

 

Resurgence in M&A and partnerships

Nearly three-quarters of asset managers (73%) are considering a strategic consolidation with another asset manager in the coming months. Gaining access to new segments, building market share and mitigating risks will drive deal appetite over the next year and beyond (see chart below), though some transactions may be held up by valuation uncertainty and funding constraints in the short term.

 

The need for control of distribution and the client relationship is also likely to spur vertical integration as AWM organisations bring together expertise from private banking, wealth management and other client access points with the core value drivers of investment performance. 

Nearly three-quarters of asset managers (73%) are considering a strategic consolidation with another asset manager in the coming months.

    The way forward

  • Hone in on your targets

    With interest rates high and access to capital limited, large-scale deals may be confined to buyers who have significant cash reserves. But innovative alliances and small-scale tech-focused and talent-focused deals are still possible and could provide transformational results.

  • Look beyond scale

    Strengthening scale and reach through horizontal integration may not be enough on its own. M&A can be the key to acquiring the distribution capabilities and the vertical integration that create openings for cross-selling and the direct customer relationship. As investor expectations evolve, acquisition can also help to secure the capabilities needed to deliver the right experience and product mix.

Driving long-term growth

As we look ahead, we believe the AWM industry will need to continue to adapt to evolving investor needs and market conditions, while also addressing the shift towards more personalised, digital-first solutions. Firms that can effectively leverage technology, build meaningful inroads to new and existing customers, and deliver exceptional client experiences will be well-positioned to thrive in this rapidly evolving landscape. Overall, our survey reinforces the fact that the industry remains a vital component of the global financial system, poised to drive long-term growth and wealth creation for individuals and institutions alike.

Hier geht's zur Global Asset and Wealth Management Survey 2023

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Thomas Steinbauer

Thomas Steinbauer

Partner, PwC Austria

Tel: +43 676 833 773 639

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